Will Donald Trump or Hilary Clinton be our next president? While you may think that we need to wait until the final hours of November 8, 2016 to find out who will be the 44th Commander in Chief of these United States, there are ways to predict who will be victorious.
In fact, our methods of predicting who will be the next U.S. President, and whether the Republicans or Democrats will seize power, has nothing to do with New Hampshire or Iowa, Quinnipiac polls or economic indicators. We’ll rely on these weird, funny, and downright bizarre - but shockingly accurate - predictors of Presidential races:
Popular Halloween masks
According to CNN Money, Halloween mask sales are a rock solid predictor of who will be elected the next U.S. president. In fact, whichever candidate sells more masks or costumes with their likeness has also won the presidential election going back to 1980.
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Donald Trump masks were more popular than Hillary Clinton masks (and far more scary!) so the Republicans win.
Which candidate has better hair
Since television became popular, starting with Kennedy beating out Nixon, the candidate with the better hair is almost entirely ensured to win the presidential election. In fact, Obama and his close-cropped haircut beat out a balding John McCain in our last election.
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Hilary’s mop isn’t anything special, but Donald Trump’s coif looks like a spray-tanned beaver died on his head.
The kid vote
To educate and familiarize our children with Presidential elections, many elementary schools set up their own voting booths and conduct mock elections. Teachers collect and tally the results, announcing them to the children as a fun part of the learning process. But those results are also turned over to Scholastic News, who has published them in advance of the real Presidential election. Incredibly, the kids have polled for the correct president in 15 out of the last 17 elections. The only exceptions were in 1960 when our nation’s children chose Nixon over Kennedy, and in 1948 when they voted Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman.
Accuracy: 88%
Prediction: We’ll have to check the Scholastic News results early next year!
How the Los Angeles Lakers fare
Nine times in history the Lakers were in the NBA championship series in the same year as a presidential election. They’re record in those finals is 5-4, but that’s not the predicting factor. The first eight times the Lakers were in the finals, Republicans won the presidency later that year, with a perfect 8-0 record.
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Lakers had one of the worst records in the league last year, so Dems slam dunk this one.
Oscar-winning movies
This is an amazing predictor. During election years, take a look at which film won the Academy Award for Best Picture the year before. If the movie has a bummer, sad, or negative ending, the incumbent party will win the election. But if the movie has an upbeat or storybook happy ending, a new party will be in the White House.
Accuracy: 90%+
1975 Best Picture winner One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.
Bummer ending, so the incumbent party lost the presidential election the next year.
1979 Kramer vs. Kramer
Bummer ending, so the incumbent Democrats lost the Republicans won the presidential election the next year.
1983 Terms of Endearment
Family heals and comes together, the incumbent party wins.
1987 The Last Emperor
This is the only year that didn’t really work, since the communist system was restored at the end of the movie, but the incumbent lost.
1991 The Silence of the Lambs
Hannibal got away, so Incumbent loses.
1995 Braveheart
William Wallace may have met his demise but Scotland won her freedom. The incumbent party won.
1999 American Beauty
The main character is murdered and things go from weird to catastrophic, which means the incumbent party lost.
2003 The Lord of the Rings
Our heroes are victorious and evil is defeated, which means the incumbent party wins.
2007 No Country For Old Men
The bad guy gets away with murder, and the incumbent party loses.
2011 The Artist
Happy ending, the incumbent won.
2015 Birdman
Prediction: This film had a pretty positive ending to a dark, serious film.
Prediction: That means the Democrats will win as the incumbent party!
The thickness of women’s eyebrows
According to “Women’s Wear Daily,” in years that Republicans win, you’ll typically see thinner eyebrows and more red lipstick among ladies. However, in years a Democrat wins the presidential election, you’ll see bigger eyebrows and softer shades of lipstick.
Accuracy: Questionable at best
Prediction: Republican
Pick whomever Sylvia Browne doesn’t
Do you remember The Montel Williams show? He had a psychic named Sylvia Browne who appeared on there from time to time. Every four years she would announce the winner of the presidential election months ahead of time, as reported to her by the spirits. The only problem was that Browne hasn’t been right yet.
Accuracy: 0% (or 100% if you pick against her)
Prediction: The Montell Williams show is no longer on the air, but years ago, Sylvia “The Psychic Who’s Always Wrong” Browne made a bold prediction that Hillary Clinton would never run. Hmmm…
The Redskins Rule
Apparently, the football team in the nation’s capital is a precise predictor of U.S. presidents. If the Redskins win their last home game of the season before Election Day, then the incumbent party will win. Incredibly, it’s worked for every single election since 1940, with only one exception.
In 2004, the Packers beat the Redskins in the final home game before the election, but President George W. Bush won and retained his presidency, but remember that he’d actually lost the popular vote in 2000, when a Supreme Court ruling over a Florida recount awarded him the Presidency. So if we look at the popular vote, not just who wins, then the Redskin Rule holds up a perfect 18-0.
Accuracy: Solid as oak
Prediction: The Redskins tied their last game pre-election, 27-27 with the Bengals. The game wasn’t a home game or a road game, since it was played at Wembley Stadium in London. Oh boy, will we have another voting virtual tie and need a recount?
The 7-Eleven Cup Rule
7-Eleven, the popular convenience store, offers custom coffee cups every election season, allowing customers to choose a cup from the party they want to see in office. In the last four elections, the presidential candidate who was chosen most on a 7-Eleven cup, won.
Accuracy: As consistent as morning coffee
Prediction: This year, 7-11 rolled out three cups: Republican, Democrat, and “Speak Up” with no candidate names, obscuring the polls. The popular favorite so far? The nondenominational “Speak Up” cups.
The World Series Rule
This one is pretty simply – if the American League wins baseball’s World Series, a Republican will win that year’s Presidential election, But if a National League team hoists the World Series banner, the Democrats are in for a victory.
Accuracy: The best analytic since “Sabermetrics”
Prediction: The National League Cubs JUST won the World Series last night in a historic game 7, which means our next president will be a Democrat.
The vote in Vigo County, Indiana
Since 1956, the way that little Vigo County, Indiana votes has predicted the U.S. presidential election every time. In fact, their results are surprisingly accurate – within 3% of the popular vote – and the trend of Vigo as a prognosticator goes all the way back to 1892 with only two exceptions.
Accuracy: Bet the farm on it
Prediction: TBD!
The Presidential Candidate Height Rule
This is amazing (and scary!): since 1900, the taller Presidential candidate has won every election with only eight exceptions. Most recently, the 6’1” Obama beat John McCain (5’6”) in 2008 but also beat a taller Mitt Romney (6’2”) in 2012, leading us to wonder if Romney wears 1”+ lifts in his black wingtips? .
Accuracy: Meh
Prediction: Donald Trump is 6’2” and Hillary Clinton…is not
The Last Name Rule
If we go back to 1900, the Presidential candidate with the most letters in his last name has won 16 times and lost only 8.
Accuracy: Sports betters and gamblers wish they had a two-thirds success rate
Prediction: Trump (5) falls just short of Clinton (7)
The Summer Olympics Rule
Just like U.S. Presidential elections, the Summer Olympics happen every four years – but is there a correlation? In fact, in the last 13 out of 14 Summer Olympics, a precedent has been set that predicts our next President. If the host country has previously hosted a Summer Olympics, the incumbent party has won the election. Only Japan’s hosting of the 1964 Summer Olympics bucks this rule…BUT…Japan had been awarded the 1940 Summer Olympics but they were cancelled because of WWII, so it can be almost justified as 14 out of 14 wins
Accuracy: 95%
Prediction: The Summer Olympics were hosted in Brazil in 2016 for the first time…which means a Republican is sure to win.
The First Lady Cookies Rule
Finally, we’re getting down to some really scientific methods of predicting the next U.S. President with…cookie recipes? The popular home magazine “Family Circle” has published a favorite cookie recipe from each of the Presidential candidate’s wives since 1992, with readers voting for their favorite tasty treat. So far, Hillary Clinton over Barbara Bush and Elizabeth Dole, Laura Bush over Tipper Gore and Teresa Heinz Kerry, and Michelle Obama over Cindy McCain and Ann Romney have held up flawlessly,
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Bill Clinton can’t bake (pun very much intended), but Ivanka doesn’t look like she’s cooked a thing in her life. So it’s a dead heat in the bake off!
In fact, our methods of predicting who will be the next U.S. President, and whether the Republicans or Democrats will seize power, has nothing to do with New Hampshire or Iowa, Quinnipiac polls or economic indicators. We’ll rely on these weird, funny, and downright bizarre - but shockingly accurate - predictors of Presidential races:
Popular Halloween masks
According to CNN Money, Halloween mask sales are a rock solid predictor of who will be elected the next U.S. president. In fact, whichever candidate sells more masks or costumes with their likeness has also won the presidential election going back to 1980.
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Donald Trump masks were more popular than Hillary Clinton masks (and far more scary!) so the Republicans win.
Which candidate has better hair
Since television became popular, starting with Kennedy beating out Nixon, the candidate with the better hair is almost entirely ensured to win the presidential election. In fact, Obama and his close-cropped haircut beat out a balding John McCain in our last election.
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Hilary’s mop isn’t anything special, but Donald Trump’s coif looks like a spray-tanned beaver died on his head.
The kid vote
To educate and familiarize our children with Presidential elections, many elementary schools set up their own voting booths and conduct mock elections. Teachers collect and tally the results, announcing them to the children as a fun part of the learning process. But those results are also turned over to Scholastic News, who has published them in advance of the real Presidential election. Incredibly, the kids have polled for the correct president in 15 out of the last 17 elections. The only exceptions were in 1960 when our nation’s children chose Nixon over Kennedy, and in 1948 when they voted Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman.
Accuracy: 88%
Prediction: We’ll have to check the Scholastic News results early next year!
How the Los Angeles Lakers fare
Nine times in history the Lakers were in the NBA championship series in the same year as a presidential election. They’re record in those finals is 5-4, but that’s not the predicting factor. The first eight times the Lakers were in the finals, Republicans won the presidency later that year, with a perfect 8-0 record.
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Lakers had one of the worst records in the league last year, so Dems slam dunk this one.
Oscar-winning movies
This is an amazing predictor. During election years, take a look at which film won the Academy Award for Best Picture the year before. If the movie has a bummer, sad, or negative ending, the incumbent party will win the election. But if the movie has an upbeat or storybook happy ending, a new party will be in the White House.
Accuracy: 90%+
1975 Best Picture winner One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.
Bummer ending, so the incumbent party lost the presidential election the next year.
1979 Kramer vs. Kramer
Bummer ending, so the incumbent Democrats lost the Republicans won the presidential election the next year.
1983 Terms of Endearment
Family heals and comes together, the incumbent party wins.
1987 The Last Emperor
This is the only year that didn’t really work, since the communist system was restored at the end of the movie, but the incumbent lost.
1991 The Silence of the Lambs
Hannibal got away, so Incumbent loses.
1995 Braveheart
William Wallace may have met his demise but Scotland won her freedom. The incumbent party won.
1999 American Beauty
The main character is murdered and things go from weird to catastrophic, which means the incumbent party lost.
2003 The Lord of the Rings
Our heroes are victorious and evil is defeated, which means the incumbent party wins.
2007 No Country For Old Men
The bad guy gets away with murder, and the incumbent party loses.
2011 The Artist
Happy ending, the incumbent won.
2015 Birdman
Prediction: This film had a pretty positive ending to a dark, serious film.
Prediction: That means the Democrats will win as the incumbent party!
The thickness of women’s eyebrows
According to “Women’s Wear Daily,” in years that Republicans win, you’ll typically see thinner eyebrows and more red lipstick among ladies. However, in years a Democrat wins the presidential election, you’ll see bigger eyebrows and softer shades of lipstick.
Accuracy: Questionable at best
Prediction: Republican
Pick whomever Sylvia Browne doesn’t
Do you remember The Montel Williams show? He had a psychic named Sylvia Browne who appeared on there from time to time. Every four years she would announce the winner of the presidential election months ahead of time, as reported to her by the spirits. The only problem was that Browne hasn’t been right yet.
Accuracy: 0% (or 100% if you pick against her)
Prediction: The Montell Williams show is no longer on the air, but years ago, Sylvia “The Psychic Who’s Always Wrong” Browne made a bold prediction that Hillary Clinton would never run. Hmmm…
The Redskins Rule
Apparently, the football team in the nation’s capital is a precise predictor of U.S. presidents. If the Redskins win their last home game of the season before Election Day, then the incumbent party will win. Incredibly, it’s worked for every single election since 1940, with only one exception.
In 2004, the Packers beat the Redskins in the final home game before the election, but President George W. Bush won and retained his presidency, but remember that he’d actually lost the popular vote in 2000, when a Supreme Court ruling over a Florida recount awarded him the Presidency. So if we look at the popular vote, not just who wins, then the Redskin Rule holds up a perfect 18-0.
Accuracy: Solid as oak
Prediction: The Redskins tied their last game pre-election, 27-27 with the Bengals. The game wasn’t a home game or a road game, since it was played at Wembley Stadium in London. Oh boy, will we have another voting virtual tie and need a recount?
The 7-Eleven Cup Rule
7-Eleven, the popular convenience store, offers custom coffee cups every election season, allowing customers to choose a cup from the party they want to see in office. In the last four elections, the presidential candidate who was chosen most on a 7-Eleven cup, won.
Accuracy: As consistent as morning coffee
Prediction: This year, 7-11 rolled out three cups: Republican, Democrat, and “Speak Up” with no candidate names, obscuring the polls. The popular favorite so far? The nondenominational “Speak Up” cups.
The World Series Rule
This one is pretty simply – if the American League wins baseball’s World Series, a Republican will win that year’s Presidential election, But if a National League team hoists the World Series banner, the Democrats are in for a victory.
Accuracy: The best analytic since “Sabermetrics”
Prediction: The National League Cubs JUST won the World Series last night in a historic game 7, which means our next president will be a Democrat.
The vote in Vigo County, Indiana
Since 1956, the way that little Vigo County, Indiana votes has predicted the U.S. presidential election every time. In fact, their results are surprisingly accurate – within 3% of the popular vote – and the trend of Vigo as a prognosticator goes all the way back to 1892 with only two exceptions.
Accuracy: Bet the farm on it
Prediction: TBD!
The Presidential Candidate Height Rule
This is amazing (and scary!): since 1900, the taller Presidential candidate has won every election with only eight exceptions. Most recently, the 6’1” Obama beat John McCain (5’6”) in 2008 but also beat a taller Mitt Romney (6’2”) in 2012, leading us to wonder if Romney wears 1”+ lifts in his black wingtips? .
Accuracy: Meh
Prediction: Donald Trump is 6’2” and Hillary Clinton…is not
The Last Name Rule
If we go back to 1900, the Presidential candidate with the most letters in his last name has won 16 times and lost only 8.
Accuracy: Sports betters and gamblers wish they had a two-thirds success rate
Prediction: Trump (5) falls just short of Clinton (7)
The Summer Olympics Rule
Just like U.S. Presidential elections, the Summer Olympics happen every four years – but is there a correlation? In fact, in the last 13 out of 14 Summer Olympics, a precedent has been set that predicts our next President. If the host country has previously hosted a Summer Olympics, the incumbent party has won the election. Only Japan’s hosting of the 1964 Summer Olympics bucks this rule…BUT…Japan had been awarded the 1940 Summer Olympics but they were cancelled because of WWII, so it can be almost justified as 14 out of 14 wins
Accuracy: 95%
Prediction: The Summer Olympics were hosted in Brazil in 2016 for the first time…which means a Republican is sure to win.
The First Lady Cookies Rule
Finally, we’re getting down to some really scientific methods of predicting the next U.S. President with…cookie recipes? The popular home magazine “Family Circle” has published a favorite cookie recipe from each of the Presidential candidate’s wives since 1992, with readers voting for their favorite tasty treat. So far, Hillary Clinton over Barbara Bush and Elizabeth Dole, Laura Bush over Tipper Gore and Teresa Heinz Kerry, and Michelle Obama over Cindy McCain and Ann Romney have held up flawlessly,
Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Bill Clinton can’t bake (pun very much intended), but Ivanka doesn’t look like she’s cooked a thing in her life. So it’s a dead heat in the bake off!
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